The Dollar's Inability To Rise Even With Rates Rising Is Not A Good Sign For The Dollar美元无力上升，即使利率上升，是不是一个好兆头美元
By Monty Guild由蒙蒂会馆
The continued rise in the currencies and a持续上升，在货币和
continued decline in the US dollar even in the续下降，在美元，即使在
months after a big rally in foreign currencies,几个月后，一个大集会外币，
normally even an extremely unattractive通常即使是一个非常没有吸引力
investment gets some rally after a big decline.投资得到一些集会后，大降低。
So far, the US dollar has not had much of a至目前为止，美元并未有太大的
rally.集会。

We have been bearish on the US dollar for years.我们一直看跌美元，为年。
That has been a correct approach, and we remain这一直是正确的做法，我们依然
bearish on the US dollar for the long term.看跌美元，为长远目标。 We我们
are however surprised at how friendless the不过让人吃惊：如何friendless了
dollar is these days.美元，是这些天来的。 We had not expected it to我们事先并没有预料到
be so obviously friendless at this juncture.那么显然friendless在这个时刻。
Even the worst stock or currency usually rallies即使是最坏的股票或货币通常集会
up after a decline.后下降。 Maybe the dollar will, but或许美元将，但
the time for it to do so is running out.的时候，它这样做是不多了。

INDIA GROWING AT ABOUT AS FAST AS CHINA......WE印度增长约快中国......我们
CONTINUE TO LIKE INDIA继续像印度

India has always had the potential to grow as印度一直有增长的潜力，作为
fast as China, but the poor infrastructure and快餐作为中国的，但基础设施差和
the government filled with many corrupt civil政府充满了许多腐败公务员
servants had slowed the growth rate.公务员已经放慢了增长速度。
Now corporate organizations have gone ahead and现在企业的组织工作已经取得和
built much of their own infrastructure, and Prime建得多他们自己的基础设施，和总理
Minister Singh has shown himself to be a wise and印度外长辛格已经表明自己是一个明智和
honest leader.诚实的领导者。 Let us hope that the huge让我们希望这庞大
potential that the subcontinent has will be潜力次大陆已经将
realized in the coming decades.实现了在今后几十年。 We believe that我们相信，
it will.它将。 Like oil and foreign currencies India像石油和外币印度
has provided good profits for us and we see more提供了良好的利润，为我们和我们看到有更多的
in the future.在未来。 We have been bullish on India and我们就一直看好印度和
remain bullish on India for the long term.继续看好印度为长远目标。

INVESTMENT THEMES REVISITED投资主题重提

Our investment themes remain the same.我们的投资主题仍然是一样的。 To至
refresh your memory they are as follows:刷新你的记忆，他们分别如下：
• Growth of China, India and the Asian region •增长的中国，印度和亚洲地区
creates investment opportunity in these markets.创造投资机会，在这些市场。
• Energy demand will continue to grow. •对能源的需求将继续增长。 Supply is供应
not growing, hence energy prices will rise.没有增长，因此能源价格将明显上升。
• Non US dollar based currencies will continue •非美元为基础的货币将继续
to appreciate.欣赏。
• Demand for global financial services will grow •需求，为全球金融服务将增长
rapidly.迅速。
• Industrial metals and precious metals will be •工业金属和贵金属将
needed to further global growth.需要进一步的全球经济成长。 Supply is供应
stagnant and demand is rising, hence prices will停滞不前的需求呈上升趋势，因此价格将
rise.上升。
• Transportation equipment is important for this •交通运输设备是很重要的，这
growth to continue.增长会持续下去。

They have been the same for some time, and this他们已同一段时间内，而这
sameness would be boring except for the fact that共同性，将枯燥的，除了事实
all of the themes are producing profits, and所有的主题是生产利润，并
profits tend to decrease boredom.利润趋于减少解闷。 So, we are因此，我们正
enjoying the lack of boredom from the same themes.享受缺乏解闷，从同一个主题。

GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND全球能源需求

Last week, the Wall Street Journal had a good上周，华尔街日报有了一个良好
article about some of the arguments that we have文章的一些论点，我们有
been belaboring for several years.被打棍子数年之久。
1. 1 。 Global energy demand is strong even at prices全球能源需求强劲，即使在价格
approaching $70 per barrel.接近70美元报收。
2. 2 。 Global energy demand is accelerating.全球对能源的需求正在加速。 It is这是
growing at twice the rate of 2006.成长率的两倍， 2006年。
3. 3 。 Global GDP is expected to grow at about 5 a year.全球国内生产总值预计将增长约5年。 How do you grow your你怎么长大贵
economy without growing energy consumption?经济增长的能源消费吗？ It它
is hard to do.是难做到。 2二
increases in energy demand is a problem.增加对能源的需求是一个问题。

GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY全球能源供应

Many, many people have now joined us in our once许多，许多人已加入了我们的一次
controversial thesis that new energy will be争议的论点，即新能源将
found, but that THE COST OFTHE NEW ENERGY WILL BE发现的，但成本之新能源将
MUCH HIGHER PER BARREL THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE要高得多每桶比一直案例
HISTORICALLY.历史上的。

People used to think we could find a lot of new人们习惯认为，我们可以找到很多新的
energy as cheaply as we have historically.能源作为又好又便宜，因为我们有历史。 New新的
energy sources are being found, but they are能源来源被发现，但他们
proving to be harder to access and more expensive由此证明，更难获取和更加昂贵
to produce.生产。
Sure, we can make oil from coal, we can make当然，我们可以从石油，煤炭，我们可以做出
gasoline from ethanol, we can develop the oil从汽油中乙醇的，我们能够开发出石油
sands in northern Canada, and we can drill for金沙在加拿大北部地区，我们可以演练
oil deep under the sea all over the globe.石油深海下都满意的世界。 These这些
are some relatively recent approaches for solving一些比较近期的途径解决
the world’s oil and gasoline needs.世界上的石油和汽油的需求。

All of these approaches will produce oil but at所有这些办法将生产石油，但在
what price?代价是什么呢？ The answer: a lot higher than the答曰：有很多高于
current price of $70 dollars a barrel.目前的价格为70美元一桶。

Several years ago, we predicted that oil would几年前，我们预测油价会
hit $50 per barrel in 2005.达到每桶50美元的水平，在2005年。 People scoffed at人们嘲笑
that ludicrous notion.这可笑的概念。 It turned out that we原来，这是我们
were too conservative; oil exceeded $50 per太保守;油价突破50美元
barrel in 2004.油价在2004年。 Then we predicted that oil would那么，我们预测油价会
go to $100 per barrel by 2008.........We continue到100美元至每桶由2008年.........我们继续
to believe that that prediction may well turn out相信这个预测可能令
to be correct.是正确的。

ENERGY SUMMARY能源综述

Oil started 2002 at about $20 a barrel.石油， 2002年开始，在大约每桶20美元。 Then, in然后，在
less than three years it went to over $50 per不到三年的时间，它到超过百分之五十
barrel.桶。 This created a psychological shock for这造成了心理冲击
governments and consumers and they began to政府和消费者，他们开始
conserve.养护。 Gradually, they got used to $50 plus渐渐地，他们习惯了，以50元，另加
oil and began to consume more.石油，并开始消耗更多。 At the same time,在同一时间内，
the world economy was accelerating and creating世界经济正在加速形成
more demand for energy.更多的能源需求。 Now at close to $70 per现在已接近70美元
barrel demand is increasing at above 2% per year桶的需求在不断增加，在上述2 ％
and supply is increasing by less.和供应增加的不足。 LET’S GET USED让我们用
TO HIGHER OIL PRICES.....THEY’RE HERE TO STAY.高油价的… …他们就在这儿留下来。

DEMAND FOR SEISMIC STUDIES THAT ARE USED TO需求对地震研究被用来
DETERMINE THE AVAILABILITY OF HYDROCARBONS WILL确定供货碳氢化合物会
GROW FAST FOR ANOTHER DECADE生长快又十年

In the 1980's, as a reaction to the rapid在20世纪80年代，作为一个反应迅速
increases in energy prices during the 1970's,加能源价格在1970年的，
major oil companies spent a lot of money on各大油公司花了很多钱
seismic studies.地震研究。 This is a system of using这是一个系统的使用
technology to estimate and evaluate the pools of技术估计和评价池
energy beneath the Earth’s surface to determine能源下方的地球表面，以确定
which pools of energy could be produced其中池能量，可产生
economically.在经济上。 Seismic studies helped evaluate地震研究有助于评估
the finding and drilling costs and minimized the这一发现和钻井成本减少到最低限度
cost associated with finding failed wells or dry相关费用寻找失败水井或干
holes.洞。

After后

Navigating Hostile Territory: How To Be Home-Based Without Being Picked Cleaned 航行敌对领土：如何才能以家庭为基础的，没有被钦点清理

Why Businesses Should Podcast 为什么企业应该播客

Tips To Help You Start Your Own All-Round Translation Business 提示，以帮助你开始你自己的各方面均衡翻译业务

How To Get Meetings With Decision Makers 如何让会议与决策者

Jambali the Wealth-Giver jambali财富的赐予

oil prices stopped rising, major oil石油价格停止上涨，主要石油
companies continued to spend on seismic for a few公司仍然花费就地震了数
years, but they stopped when the oil price began多年了，但停止的时候，石油价格开始
to fall.下降。 It has been about twenty five years已大约二十五年
since this major spending on gathering seismic由于这项重大开支收集地震
data ended.数据结束。 Since then the seismic industry has自从那时起地震业
improved their technology, and they now have very改进自己的技术，他们现在都非常
good product generically known as 3D seismic.好的产品一般称之为三维地震。
Today, there is a huge pent up demand caused by今天，是一个庞大的被压抑的需求所致
the lack of data gathered in the last two decades.缺乏数据，齐聚在过去20年间。

Main Points要点
• Offshore, not much seismic has been shot in •境外，没有太大的地震已被子弹击中
quite a while.有一段时间了。
• Most new oil and gas fields of major size will •最新的石油和天然气田的主要尺寸，将
be found offshore.找到境外。
• Offshore wells, especially in water over 300 •近海油井，特别是在水超过300
feet, are very expensive to drill.脚，是非常昂贵的钻探。
• Thus, the need for seismic is great. •因此，有必要对地震是巨大的。 The该
industry is ready to move into a new growth phase工业是已准备好进入一个新的增长阶段
for both onshore and offshore wells.无论陆上和海上油井。

We have taken a good look at the seismic industry,我们已经采取了很好的照顾，在地震业，
especially the offshore seismic contractors, and特别是海上地震承办，并
equipment suppliers.设备供应商。 We will be gradually adding我们将逐步增加
some of these stocks to our portfolios with a部分这些股票，以我们的投资与
view that their earnings will grow steadily for认为，他们的收入会稳步增长，为
years to come.几年来。

For more information on global investing visit更多信息，对全球投资的访问
http//:www.howtoinvestglobally.com通过http / / ： www.howtoinvestglobally.com
--------------------------------------------------
------------------------------

These articles are for informational purposes这些文章作参考之用
only and are not intended to be a solicitation,只是，并没有打算成为邀约
offering or recommendation of any security.提供或推荐任何形式的担保。
Guild Investment Management does not represent会馆投资管理并不代表
that the securities, products, or services该证券，产品或服务
discussed in this web site are suitable or讨论在本网站适合或
appropriate for all investors.适合所有投资者。 Any market任何市场
analysis constitutes an opinion that may not be分析构成了一项民意可能不
correct.正确的。 Readers must make their own independent读者必须作出自己的独立
investment decisions.投资决策。
The information in this article is not intended信息在这篇文章中，是不是打算
for distribution to, or use by, any person or发给，或供其使用，任何人或
entity in any jurisdiction or country where such实体，在任何司法管辖区或国家，如
distribution or use would be contrary to law or分销或使用将违反法律或
regulation, or which would subject Guild规例，或将主题会馆
Investment Management to any registration投资管理任何注册
requirement within such jurisdiction or country.要求这种管辖权或国家。

Any opinions expressed herein, are subject to任何意见，在此表示，受
change without notice.变更，恕不另行通知。 In addition, there are此外，还有
many market, currency, economic, political,很多市场，货币，经济，政治，
business, technological and other risks that are业务，技术及其他风险是
beyond our control.非我们所能控制。 We make reasonable efforts我们将尽一切努力
to provide accurate content in these articles;提供准确的内容，在这些物品;
however, some content and some of the assumptions,然而，一些内容和一些假设，
formulas, algorithms and other data that impact公式，运算法则和其他数据的影响
the content may be inaccurate, outdated, or内容可能不准确，过时的，或
otherwise inappropriate.否则不恰当的。 In addition, we may除此之外，我们可能
have conflicts of interest with respect to any有利益冲突就任何
investments mentioned.投资提及。 Our principals and our我们的校长和我们
clients may hold positions in investments客户也可以同时担任要职，在投资
mentioned on the site or we may take positions提到对网站或者我们可以采取的立场
contrary to investments mentioned.相反，以投资提及。

Guild’s current and past market commentaries are会馆的当前和过去的市场评论
protected by copyright.受版权保护。 Apart from any use除了任何使用
permitted under the Copyright Act, you must not许可的情况下版权法，你一定不
copy, frame, modify, transmit or distribute the拷贝，帧中继，修改，传送或分发
market commentaries, without seeking the prior市场评述，谋求事先
consent of Guild.征得会馆。

Article Directory : http://www.articlecube.com 文章目录 ： http://www.articlecube.com

Mr. Guild founded Guild Investment Management in 1971.先生会馆成立行业协会，投资管理于1971年。 Prior to founding the company he was an analyst at a bank and a hedge fund.前创立公司，是一位分析师在一家银行和对冲基金的监管。 Mr. Guild is a recognized expert in the areas of international investing and economics.先生会馆是一个公认的专家在该领域的国际投资和经济。